Operant Conditioning

Apr. 23rd, 2017 12:49 am
[syndicated profile] clintbarton_philcoul_feed

Posted by <a href="/users/BeneficialAddiction/pseuds/BeneficialAddiction" rel="author">BeneficialAddiction</a>


It may not have started out under the best of circumstances, but Clint and Phil's newfound dynamic has led them to mutual confessions of love and lust. Three months separate them and their agreed-upon collaring date - that's plenty of time to um... get to know one another better. There may be a few bumps and bruises along the way, but hey, they're quick learners.

Words: 1454, Chapters: 1/?, Language: English

Series: Part 2 of Laws of Effect

Updates: Swancon, back home.

Apr. 23rd, 2017 01:25 pm
jolantru: (Default)
[personal profile] jolantru
I flew back from Swancon last Tuesday. Plane landed ahead of schedule. It was 4am. Spent a couple of days adjusting. It was a bit of a culture shock coming back to Singapore.

But Swancon has been awesome: nourishing to the soul and uplifting my spirits.
[syndicated profile] daily_illuminator_feed
William Shakespeare William Shakespeare, entirely apart from his many literary contributions to our world, also gave us a trivia question: He was born and died on the same date, April 23. (Different years, though.) So today, we thought it appropriate to celebrate his life while reminding you that it's not too late to ask your friendly local game store to preorder Munchkin Shakespeare Deluxe from their distributor.

And while you're at it, thank Shakespeare for giving you only one date to remember. He did it for you.

Andrew Hackard

Warehouse 23 News:

Strange Things Are Afoot In Bill & Ted's Excellent Boardgame!

Play as one of several alternate-timeline versions of Bill S. Preston, Esquire, and Ted Theodore Logan, navigating the Circuits of Time in your time-traveling phone booth and gathering Famous Dudes for your oral history-report. Look out for the Evil Dudes, though – they'll pilfer your prominent passengers if you're not careful! Dial up Bill & Ted's Excellent Boardgame at Warehouse 23 before history class!


[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by Mike Smithson

Head to head: Fillon-LePen

Head to head: Melenchon-LePen

Head to head: Macron-LePen

Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards.

If the exit polling is close then we might see some delay before any figures are published. Unlike the UK where there is one single exit poll in France several media outlets have their own polls.

Since BREXIT and the election of Trump the big focus has been on whether the far right anti-EU Marine Le Pen could win.

For much of the time in the past year she had led the first round polling but in France coming top is not enough – the top two in today’s elections go forward to the run off two weeks today on Sunday May 7th.

The tables above show the hypothetical second round polls covering the top four in the polling for today’s election.

As can be seen the person that Marine Le Pen least wants to face is the 39 years old independent who has been the huge surprise of this election. The French Republican party candidate, Francois Fillon, who has been very troubled during the campaign by a financial scandal would probably be a better opponent for her.

Before that scandal broke Fillon looked to be in with a very strong chance and the talk in the closing days of the campaign has been on “shy” Fillon supporters understating his polling strength.

In the betting Macron remains the odds-on favourite.

Mike Smithson

Comic for April 23, 2017

Apr. 23rd, 2017 11:59 pm
[syndicated profile] dilbert_feed
Dilbert readers - Please visit Dilbert.com to read this feature. Due to changes with our feeds, we are now making this RSS feed a link to Dilbert.com.
[syndicated profile] political_betting_feed

Posted by TSE

Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority.

But here are the reasons why I think the Tory majority won’t be as massive as people think

1) Tory complacency

It seems every day new record breaking polls come out implying that the Tories are going win a stonking landslide on June the 8th, whilst Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would suffer less punishment if the they booked 400 dominatrices concurrently that night and chose ‘mower’ as their safe word.

This is likely to depress turnout as voters, especially Tories think the result is in the bag. This could see Labour holding on to seats they should be losing if the polls are accurate because of low turnout.

2) Shy Labour voters

With Jeremy Corbyn as leader, you can see why Labour voters would be shy about admitting voting for Labour, this isn’t just conjecture on my part, there’s actual evidence for it.

ICM’s spiral of silence adjustment is reducing Tory leads on a regular basis by a few per cent each time. It is entirely possible that ICM are underestimating it because of 3)

3) The Love Labour, hate Corbyn voters.

If you’re a long standing Labour voter who hates Corbyn but like your local Labour MP, such as Wes Streeting or John Woodcock for example, who happen to be a vocal critics of Corbyn, what are you going to do? A) Let in a Tory MP, or B) back that anti-Corbyn MP? It’s B isn’t it, a no brainer as some would say.

These are the sort of people I suspect tell pollsters they won’t vote Labour as way of trying to force Corbyn out.

4) Labour could get the ‘sympathy shag vote’

This is  the antonym of 1) There are lots of voters out there who like the Labour party as an idea, as a concept, as a force for good and who whilst might not like Jeremy Corbyn want neither a result so bad that Labour can’t ever recover from/or take decades to recover from, nor do they want the Tories to have such a huge majority so they can do whatever they wish. So these voters pity Labour’s plight in the polls and give them their vote out of sympathy.

5) Whisper it very carefully, Mrs May might not actually be that popular

First of all there’s the polling that shows her popularity is equally down to her not being Jeremy Corbyn nor would she be losing the majority of the Tory gains from the Lib Dems that her election strategist found, a PM with polling leads of 25% really shouldn’t be doing that.

People compare her to Mrs Thatcher, but what has Mrs May really achieved that is comparable to Mrs Thatcher had prior to her 1983 and 1987 landslides? No war won, no massive reform of the UK, so far only a slogan, ‘Brexit means Brexit.’

Plus Mrs May’s a crap campaigner, no wonder she’s frightened to meet real voters or to debate Corbyn, given her failure to consistently crush him at PMQs. Macavity May hid during the EU referendum, as PM she can’t hide during a general election campaign. Mrs May is a crap campaigner, this is a narrative I and others expect to develop, especially if she refuses to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders.

6) Sir Lynton Crosby might not have enough time to work his magic at this general election

In 2015 Sir Lynton spent two years polling, focus grouping, and message testing the hell out of what strategies and memes would win the election, such as the long term economic plan. This election he might have only a few weeks to do all that, and his end product might not be his best or even a match to his 2015 work product.

7) Perhaps Sir Lynton is overrated and not the master strategist we think he is

Yes he did help win the 2015 general election, and oversaw Boris Johnson’s two wins as London Mayor, but he also oversaw the Tory election defeat in 2005, and the less said about the his contribution in Zac Goldsmith’s unsuccessful campaign to be London Mayor last year. Even Zac’s sister criticised the whole approach, that’s how bad a campaign it was, with many describing it as “dog-whistle racism.”

Perhaps 2015 was won purely down to Cameron’s leadership, Osborne’s magnificent stewardship of the economy, and the fear of a Labour/SNP coalition government.

8) No Lord Ashcroft constituency polling to blindside the Tory opponents this time

One Tory activist I spoke to in the aftermath of the election victory in 2015 said the party owed Lord Ashcroft a debt of gratitude for his constituency polls, which inadvertently led the Lib Dems to feel more confident (and possibly) overconfident about their chances of holding their seats from the Tories.

Whilst the polls also reinforced Labour’s belief in the ground game, where the polls indicated Labour was doing better in the Lab/Con marginals.

This allowed the Tories to campaign under the radar and win whilst their opponents believed the Ashcroft polling.

9) That expenses saga might be game changers on two levels which doesn’t help the Tories

Given allegations from last time, I suspect we won’t see Tory activists being bussed in to key seats, this  might make the Tories  to lose seats they hold and fail to take the seats they are expected to gain.

Secondly if charges are brought during the campaign, as Hillary Clinton found out, things like this can change the polls.

10) After all the polling failures in recent years, is anyone 100% confident that the polls are accurate.

Just look at that (in)famous Guardian front page from two years ago, during the last general election campaign, and the failures some pollsters had during the EU referendum, is anyone truly confident the polling problems have been entirely sorted out, especially with the reasons listed above? Last night’s polls and the reactions therein had a similar feel at times, or even the Cleggasm, and we all know how those turned out.

I expect Mrs May will win a decent majority, and I know a few PBers who last night bought the Tories at 378 seats for £30 a seat, I’ll be joining them in the morning, but if come June 9th that bet becomes a loser, it’ll be for the reasons listed above. Success equals performance minus anticipation. Right now the anticipation is for a three figure majority, anything less will feel like a disappointing night for Mrs May, she should help lower expectations.



meganbmoore: (chae-ohk)
[personal profile] meganbmoore
I wrote this for tumblr, where I've been writing about Rebel: Thief Who Stole the People a lot, and decided to crosspost this one here.

At this point, it’s actually a little sad that Saimdang: Light’s Diary and Rebel: Thief Who Stole the People are airing at the same time. Mind you, it’s not because one is easily one of the most hyped sageuks in years and isn’t performing well, while the other seems to have just been thrown out there as an afterthought and is pulling in good ratings, as well as better critical and popular response, it’s the content and themes. Personally speaking, I spent almost 2 years impatiently waiting for Saimdang, and was pretty sure it was going to be the best sageuk of the year when it did come out, something that I thought would hold true after watching the first two episodes. In contrast, Rebel was barely on my radar, and on my “watch now” list instead of “watch if people say good things while it airs” primarily because I liked Hwang Jin-Young’s previous sageuk (and only previous writing credit aside from a special) King’s Daughter Soo Baek Hyang. Halfway through their runs, Saimdang was moved to “I really like it but it could be better” status (with a lot of anger for how SBS execs screwed the show and LYA over, and now they’re taking their screwups out on the show, but I’m not going to dwell on that today) while Rebel has become the sageuk I just can’t see another sageuk surpassing it for a while. (Particularly since they all seem to at least partly center around the tropes and worldview that Rebel critiques.)

this ended up over 2500 words so here's a cut )
rosabelle: closeup of andros/zhane hug with the caption love (Default)
[personal profile] rosabelle
But instead, a few observations from the second viewing:
*The cow was the mascot of the rival school
*They were at an actual gold mine, not a random rock quarry (in my defense, random rock quarry is perfectly plausible given the canon but, you know. Good consistency!)
*I have more positive feelings about some of the relationships this time around
littlereview: (jewitch)
[personal profile] littlereview
Vos que.m semblatz dels corals amadors )

Our power came back on some time between 2 and 4 a.m. so we woke up with it working, which was lovely! But we still had to throw out a lot of what we had in the refrigerator, so we knew we had to go food shopping. We were going to go to the park at Lake Frank and then to Roots Market, but it was raining so hard that we skipped the park, and we stopped at Giant as well to get cat treats. I didn't get to walk until dinnertime when the rain finally let up. Our evening entertainment consisted of Doctor Who (good) and Class (not really doing it for me).

Here are some photos of Cavaillon Synagogue, which now also houses the Judeo-Comtadin Museum. The building's interior was designed by Catholic architects for the Jews who were allowed to live and worship in the region outside of the earlier ghettos, where they had been kept as an example of the miserable fate befalling all non-Christians, as long as they also went to church on Sundays. The dark lower room with the matzah oven was the women's worship space, while the rococo sanctuary above was reserved for men. I meant to post these for Passover but I forgot:

The Old Synagogue )

Broken elevator, broken SOPs

Apr. 22nd, 2017 09:06 pm
mdlbear: (penguin-rant)
[personal profile] mdlbear

Email to our apartment manager. Or the leasing office -- it's not clear who the "info@" account is connected to.

<rant> )


want sleep ;-(

Apr. 23rd, 2017 12:03 am
dragonyphoenix: (Evil!Binky)
[personal profile] dragonyphoenix
Oh my Goddess, I want my own place! My own quiet place where roommies aren't playing video games at midnight and giggling

The Library

Apr. 22nd, 2017 08:56 pm
lovelyangel: (Meiko Smile 2)
[personal profile] lovelyangel
In my previous post it might appear that I’m focusing on yuri manga, but it’s just a coincidence those volumes all came at the same time. The open manga series I’m actively collecting are:

  • Skip Beat!
  • Gekkan Shōjo Nozaki-kun
  • Hidamari Sketch
  • Citrus
  • Bloom into You

This doesn’t count English translations that got stopped: Aria and Lucky Star. I’d get those if I could. Also, on the side, I’m collecting the old Sailor Moon series. Lotsa manga.

I’m nearly up-to-date on the manga series. Where I’ve fallen behind is the anime series for my library. Part of that is simply that series distributed by Aniplex are so darn expensive. Part of that is that I’ve collected quite a few boxes that I just haven’t had time to watch yet, so I’m not in a huge rush to add more. Still, I know that series sets can go away at any time, so I’m not going to wait too long. Anime is my #1 hobby, and I’m committed to growing my library.

I keep an ongoing list of items I want in my library. The list is sorted by scheduled publication date. When I get an item, I check the box and move it to the Acquired list. Here’s what that list looks like (from Google Docs):

Anime/Manga Wish List by scheduled publication date

I’m waiting for the final disc set of Assassination Classroom to come out so that I can buy the second season in a single purchase. Also, it seems that Girls und Panzer der Film has been released well ahead of schedule, so I’ve ordered a two-movie bundle.
superboyprime: (Default)
[personal profile] superboyprime posting in [community profile] scans_daily

"I am always hesitant to lean into Superman too soon – in my mind, and I say it all the time, if Kal-El never landed on Earth, Kara would STILL become Supergirl. She would still learn from her experience coming to Earth and want to pay that forward on her own grand scale. So I want that to be more clear than ever." - Steve Orlando

Read more... )
sovay: (Cho Hakkai: intelligence)
[personal profile] sovay
It was cold and raw and raining and I had slept three hours; it has been an exhausting week. I made it to the Boston March for Science and I am very glad I did. My father and I took the train from Alewife; walking back and forth in front of the fare machines we met a small child carrying "Less Invasions, More Equations!" (my brain yelled, "Fewer!" and I said, "Nice sign," because people who pedantically correct the protest signs of six-year-olds are not the kind of change I want to see in the world) and at Porter a contingent from the grad student employeee union of UMass got on with "Ignorance = √All Evil." Across the car from us a father was trying to explain Tom Lehrer to his daughter, resulting in a spontaneous chorus of "Pollution." When we got off at Park Street, it was a quarter to two and Boston Common was full of protesters and stalls and food trucks and kids' music from the bandstand and then we came up over the crest of the hill by the Soldiers and Sailors Monument and it was nerds with signs as far as the eye could see.

Eventually we worked our way down the mudslide to a point where we could hear the speakers from the main stage without getting blasted by the amplification. My father took pictures. Meeting up with Dean and Lily, I gave directions by the papier-mâché 45-on-a-stick with a separate sign for its speech bubble ("Believe me, climate change is a Chinese hoax! Sad!" while standing in a pants-on-fire flaming barrel of Exxon-Mobil) and held my blue butterfly-patterned umbrella aloft like a torch. I saw [personal profile] gaudior and [personal profile] nineweaving and B. for about fifteen seconds before they disappeared with Fox, whose baby sling was pinned this time with a "Test Tube Baby" flag. We never did find [personal profile] choco_frosh and Peter. We had planned to stay the entire duration of the rally, but around a quarter to four the weather became just too cold to stand around in and we set off down Boylston Street in search of hot drinks, ending up at Patisserie on Newbury and then Trident Booksellers & Café. A great deal of walking later we met my mother in Porter Square.

The signs were great. Lots of variants on "Make America Think Again." Lots of "There Is No Planet B." Several pro-vaccination and medicine, of which my favorite was "Got Plague? Yeah, me neither. Thank a Scientist!" A woman in a Spock sweatshirt carried "The needs of the planet outweigh the greed of the lewd." I have no idea what the relevant research was, but I swear I saw "Plankton Don't Want None Unless You Got Funds, Hon!" On general principle I was rather fond of "The Oceans Are Rising and So Are We," "Think Like a Proton—Always Positive," and the several variations on "I'm with Her," pointing in all cases to Gaia. "The Climate Is Changing—Why Aren't We?" "Science Is Inoculation Against Charlatans." I did not expect to see so many shout-outs to Beaker and Dr. Bunsen Honeydew, from paired signs to a person in a full-body Beaker costume whose small plain sign read simply "MEEP!" I saw signs for Alan Turing. I saw signs for Millie Dresselhaus. One of the speakers was a deaf scientist; several were women of color. My father said it reminded him of the be-ins in New York in the 1960's, only with more porto-potties and lab coats. It was definitely a compliment.

And now, as always, not to lose this energy. What next?

version 3 dreamwidth navbar

Apr. 22nd, 2017 07:52 pm
solarbird: (made her from parts)
[personal profile] solarbird
Here's a bunch of mockups of a version 3 navbar. This one does a bunch of stuff I can't do in CSS. It's still fairly close to baseline, but they want to see that, so.

(The link is temporary but it's fine for now, it's to a dropbox directory.)

These versions can't be done with custom CSS on the existing platform, they require actual code changes in the back end. But as far as I can tell, it should all be UI code changes, pretty simple stuff.

Some functionality changes, in addition to a few new links:

  • getting rid of dropdown-plus-button to trigger a view reload on the reading view filter, and just having the dropdown selector do it directly
  • prev message/next message arrows (when in single-post views)
  • prev page/next page arrows (when in journal or reading page views)

    And I bumped up the RSS functionality a little bit, that's a nice feature I suspect others would use it more if they knew about it.

    I've asked whether the style selector needs to be a set of top-level links or whether it could also be an action-on-selection dropdown, like reading view filter. Right now I'm showing it the old way.

    Anyway, I don't really consider these really final but they do accomplish the general task of dividing into three consistent groups (user/login, current location, exploration) and adding some basic functionality (like prev/next) that really is kind of implied by "navbar," and so on.

    The background gradient is just the standard system gradient and could be replaceable with anything.

    eta: My thoughts are on mobile are that the three cells remain, but one is displayed at a time, and the other two are reached by swiping. Default to the middle pane, simplify the relationship permutation text for space, display a few fewer options perhaps.
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